The Final Week Of The NFL Season

By Blaidd Drwg

In the game that means everything for the week, the Seahawks, who despite having a losing record and giving up at least 33 points to opponents in 6 of their last 8 games (the only 2 teams that failed to score that many are Arizona and Carolina – who currently have the 2 worst records in the NFC) have a chance to be the first team without a winning record to win a division in a non-strike year and make the playoffs. I would really like to see the Seahawks win because: I live in Seattle and I really think this will finally make the NFL change their playoff seeding. It seems like every year there is some team that makes the playoffs as the wild card with a significantly better record than the 4th seeded division winner and then gets to play that game on the road. I think that is just stupid. Home field is a pretty significant advantage in the NFL (more on that below) and I don’t think that winning your division should guarantee you that advantage, especially if you are playing a team with a better record.

As for the Hawks chances, well, this is a tough call. They have the home field this week which can be good for them and they are going to be going against a rookie QB which could work to their advantage. The weather, which will probably be bitterly cold probably doesn’t help either team as neither offense if particularly great to being with. I would however like the Seahawks chances a bunch more if they had Hasselbeck starting for them instead of Charlie Whitehurst. My prediction, the Seabirds beat the Sheep 13-10 in an epic suckfest.

The topic of home field has come up a lot in stuff I have read recently. I decided to actually take a look to see how big of an advantage home field really is in the NFL over the last 6 seasons. The numbers played out pretty much the way I expected them to:

There is definitely a downward trend in home field advantage – Bill Simmons attributes it to all of the new “luxury stadiums” that have been built in the NFL over the last couple of seasons. I think I might have to agree with him (but that is for another post involving much more research). Unless something bizarre happens, like all of the home teams win this week, the win % for home teams will drop again slightly. Still, you have to figure that there is probably about a 5-10% advantage to playing at home versus playing on the road. Basically, you still probably want the home game if you can get it.

In other weird NFL news:
If the Dolphins manage to beat the Patriots this week, they will be guaranteed at least a tie for the best road record in the NFL (The Fish are currently 6-1 on the road). Only the Steelers and Bears have a chance to win 7 on the road this year (they are both currently 6-1). The strange part of that is that they have already locked up the worst home record in the NFL at 1 – 7. Even the truly pathetic Carolina Panthers have won 2 games at home. I would be willing to bet that no team has ever had both the best road record and the worst home record in the same season in NFL history.

You could end up in a situation in the NFC and AFC where a 12-4 team ends up having to play all of their playoff games on the road. In the AFC, if both the Steelers and Ravens win, they end at 12-4 but the Steelers have the tie-breaker, so the Steelers get to take next week off and the Ravens have to go on the road to play (most likely) Indy. In the NFC, if the Saints win and the Falcons win, the Saints get to go on the road as the WC (and play the “winner” of the Seahawks-Rams game) while the Falcons get a 1st round bye and home field throughout the playoffs. If the Saints win and the Falcons lose, the Saints get the bye and the Falcons are the wild card. If we end up with a situation where a 7-9 team gets to host a 12-4 team in the playoffs, the NFL really needs to rethink its seeding.