What Happened to “The Hyphen”

By Blaidd Drwg

After another complete disaster on the mound, you really need to wonder what the heck the Mariners are doing trucking Ryan Rowland-Smith out there every 5 days. His record stands at 1-10 with a stellar 6.97 ERA. At this point, I think it is time to move “The Hyphen” to the pen or ship him down to Tacoma and give someone else a shot – my vote, Chris Seddon.

So what has happened to RRS? He has been good for the last couple of seasons and now he can’t get anyone out. I am guessing that he has some sort of an undiagnosed injury that is causing his issues, but we can’t know for sure. The one thing I can tell you is there are some very disturbing trends. Here are his stats from the last 3 seasons as a starter:

Note – please see the glossary for an explanation of BAbip, and the /9 stats.

BAbip – RRS was somewhat lucky in both 2008 and 2009 – he had an abnormally low BAbip (most pitchers, even great ones are somewhere around .285 – .290 most seasons), especially in 2009. It is probably partially attributed to the great Mariners defense, partially to Safeco Field (his career split difference is somewhere around .035), partially to his drop in walk rate (less guys on base means you can throw more pitches on the fringe of the zone and those tend to make for more outs) and partially to luck. His 2010 number is a little higher than average, but not completely out of line and probably closer to what you would actually expect from any pitcher. The jump from 2009 to 2010 explains some of change in his performance, but not most of it.

HR Allowed – In his 168 innings in 2008 and 2009, RRS allowed 19 home runs, a pretty run of the mill number. In 96 innings this year he has allowed a league leading 23 (!). There is one of the primary reasons that he has had issues. When the ball leaves the yard that often, you really won’t be successful. That is a huge jump for a guy who historically does not give up many HRs and it has been a real problem on the road. He has given up 5 HR in 47.1 IP at Safeco and 18 HR allowed in 51 innings on the road. This is the primary reason I think that he might be hurt. Of course, it could also be a mechanical issue on his part too.

Strikeout Rate – Let’s face it, you would expect a guy who is 6’3” and 230 Lbs. to actually throw hard and strike out batters at a minimum a league average pace (about 6 K’s per 9 innings). Not RRS. Most guys don’t last long when the K rate is down around 5 per 9 innings and you really have a short lifespan when your rate drops below 4. The big drop on an already low rate is another indicator he might be hurt. The thing is, it isn’t like he can’t be a power pitcher – he has a career 8.6 K/9 in 87 innings as a reliever. The problem is that most of those innings came before he got hurt last season. I say, put him back in relief and let him throw hard for an inning instead of trying to pace himself.

Maybe the Mariners are trying to let RRS work out some mechanical issue with the big club and maybe they are trying to showcase him for a trade (that isn’t really working if it is the case). Either way, it is time to pull the plug on him in the starting rotation. Don’t be surprised if RRS ends up on the DL sometime before his next start and Luke French takes his place in the rotation.

Update – I wrote this the morning of 7/28. Shortly thereafter, the Mariners placed RRS on the 15-Day DL and called up Luke French. Shocking.