By Blaidd Drwg
According to ESPN, the Red Sox will not offer Josh Beckett a 5 year deal, similar to the one that they gave John Lackey this off-season. I personally am not a big fan of Josh Beckett – for all of his talent, he has been very inconsistent over his career and seems to be on an every other year schedule of having a good season, and I don’t think giving a 5 year deal to a pitcher over 30 is a good deal to begin with, but this seems a bit odd to me. A comparison of the two over the last 4 seasons:
| Josh Beckett | John Lackey | ||||||
| IP | ERA+ | Salary | IP | ERA+ | Salary | ||
| 2006 | 204.2 | 95 | 4,325,000 | 217.2 | 129 | 3,334,000 | |
| 2007 | 200.2 | 145 | 6,666,667 | 224.0 | 150 | 5,833,333 | |
| 2008 | 174.1 | 115 | 10,166,666 | 163.1 | 119 | 7,333,333 | |
| 2009 | 212.1 | 122 | 11,166,666 | 176.1 | 118 | 10,000,000 |
Th have roughly the same value and made very comparable salaries over those seasons. Their value is actually so close, that the #1 comp for each of them on Baseball-Reference is the other – and the similarity score is 971, so that is damn close. The other 3 close comps among active pitchers for Josh Beckett – Chris Carpenter, Carlos Zambrano and Jake Peavy – all of whom signed big money, long term contracts with their respective teams.
I thought that the Sox made a huge mistake in giving 5 years to Lackey, who while good, has shown some tendency to be injured over the last couple of seasons and I think the Sox are going to regret years 4 and 5 of that deal when they are paying $18+ million a year for slightly above league average pitching. It is probably all just a ploy by the Sox to try to get Beckett signed for under the going rate for a front of the rotation starter, but it will be interesting to see how it works out for them. Josh Beckett is going to get his 5 yr/$80+ million contract, the question is, which team will give it to him.
FlatbreadGarden 